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RE: M3 Comment Really why you cannot just look at results blindly

To: "'Todd Green'" <tag@cs.utah.edu>
Subject: RE: M3 Comment Really why you cannot just look at results blindly
From: Jeff Winchell <jwinchell@Giftspot.com>
Date: Fri, 26 May 2000 00:34:25 -0700
>This year my car is 100 lbs lighter, has a lightweight
>flywheel, new intake and exhaust, different springs and sway bar,
>rebuilt JRZ's, and the car is corner weighted.

Then I was misinformed.

>In 1998 and 1999, you ran eight Utah events against Jerry Hodges, the 1999
>ProSolo SS champion. Your times (non-PAXed) averaged 93.79% of Jerry Hodges
>(throwing out one event where you were 18 seconds off his pace). 

>I don't remember *ever* being 18 seconds behind Jerry.

That data point, not being used for anything, has been corrected - you were
at 92.4% of his time. That data point change doesn't affect my conclusion.

The comparative difference in the times I saw were consistent until the
first ProSolo this year. I didn't see the '99 Wendover ProSolo results
listed on the Utah website like I did the '98 Wendover ProSolo. You are
correct that this one event is a counterpoint to my analysis.

>Also according to the results Jerry isn't driving as well this year as he
did
>last year.  He placed 5th and 4th in class this year, last year placed
>1st and 1st, at the Pros. (Bonus Challenge points to who first points
>out why this isn't valid ;)

There was another group of classes that included SS cars (P2 and P3). So the
SS class placement isn't a valid comparison.

At the 3 ProSolos in '99 that Bob ran in, Jerry Hodge's ProSolo Indexed
times averaged 98.75% of the driver with the low ProSolo Indexed time at the
event. This year, excluding Bob Tunnell's indexed times, Jerry is at 97.40%.
Not enough of a decline to explain the huge relative improvement you've made
over Jerry.

But as you say, you changed a bunch of things in your car (how much of it
was after the Oct 24 autocross?).

>At the only Pro I attended in '99 I ran within 99.6% of Jerry's times. 
>This year I've run 101.4% and 99.98%  Not quite the disparity you'd like to
show.

Perhaps that is correct. I can't say whether the difference in running a
ProSolo format and Solo II format is the overwhelming factor.

>At the only SoloII event in which we've competed this year, I ran at 97.6%
of Jerry's time, >in a borrowed BSP car.

Given that it was a borrowed car, I threw out that data point. But
presumably the borrowed car was a disadvantage to Jerry and that again
points to a very large improvement in capabilities (car/driver/or both)
between this year and last year.

>Finally let's look at my Pro times compared to Tunnell.

>'98: 93.8%
>'99: 100.4% 
>'00: 97.8% (avg)

>Clearly that jump to Hoosier in '99 *really* helped me.  Oh wait,
>nevermind, Bob and I were still on BFG's in '99.  Dang, can't peg it on
>the tire factor.  Wait, I've dropped back down in 2000.  Must be that
>jump to Hoosier.  Drats we are both on Hoosiers.  We'll it must be the
>mighty M3 and all those secret changes Bob did when he found out he'd been
>moved to ESP.  Nevermind, Bob didn't make *any* changes over the winter.
>(25th anniversay sticker package does *not* count ;)

I'm not sure how all the sarcasm helps here. Simply making the point that
your ProSolo results do not support my theory would be better.

Anyway, Bob did make a change over the winter since he switched to Hoosiers.

>>In the Houston region, M3 driver Bob Dorchester took 3rd place (out of 8)
in
>>his first autocross. Since then, he's placed 4th, 2nd, 2nd, and 2nd, out
of
>>an average of 8.2 entrants.

>And how strong is the regional competition?  Let's look at my stint in
>CSP last year.  1 3rd (I coned on my best run, grr), and 8 1sts.
>Clearly the M3 is a overdog for CSP!!!

I don't know much about the Houston Region except that the large number of
ESP entrants 
makes it much more likely the person had more competition. CSP in Utah
AVERAGED 1.6 drivers per event in 1999. So I'd say the competition must have
been stronger in Houston.

>I'm just saying that if you truly want to go faster you should focus more
on the driver and >less on the car.

Until you get to the point where you've done all that, and you have a
non-competitive car. That's where the top people in ESP are now sitting. As
for the people in the middle or bottom, they'd like the chance to win along
the way too, without having to work twice as hard as the guy who happened to
buy an M3. Otherwise, it discourages them, and they are less likely to
continue in and support this sport.


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