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RE: Uh oh, M3s in ESP... again! (was: Re: more peru musings)

To: "'Ron Katona'" <rkatona@bellatlantic.net>
Subject: RE: Uh oh, M3s in ESP... again! (was: Re: more peru musings)
From: Jeff Winchell <jwinchell@Giftspot.com>
Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 22:25:11 -0700
>> If he did, then why is driving Hoosiers this year?

>If he's using them, there's no doubt he feels they are faster - agreed.

And since a car shouldn't be reclassed in a slower class until they are
fully prepared, the M3 shouldn't have been reclassed.

>What I can't agree with is taking results from a previous year and
>saying that we can disregard all the other variables and subtract 1.5%
>from said results in order to make a point with the SEB.

The analysis at http://PonyCar.Net/ESP/bob_vs_the_world.htm doesn't do this.
It simply compares Bob's time vs the fastest time of the day and shows how
this year he is 2.1% faster than last year. I don't really care what car
part was changed, it again shows that the car was not fully prepared when
Bob told the SEB that his car wasn't competitive in the class he was in.

The analysis of another driver at
http://PonyCar.Net/ESP/unknown_to_champ.htm shows how a virtually
identically modified car that also changed from BFG tires to Hoosiers and is
suddenly doing a lot better this year.

>Do we know that Bob's suspension tuning suited the Hoosiers last year?
Looks like he's 
>certainly got it sorted out this year

And so his car is better than it was last year, which means the M3 shouldn't
have been reclassified until it couldn't get any better.

>I saw no attempt to judge the equality of
>the preparation or driver skill with that statement. 

Well, the fact that Ames can't beat Tunnell either should be enough of a
statement about driver skill.

> Nothing's obvious with so little hard data in

That's not true. You can correctly analyze data and come up with a model by
having very little data if the data shows a strong enough trend. 

Or you can have a lot of data where the individual data points aren't
strong, but the quantity of them are. 

Either is a valid statistical analysis method. With the M3 in ESP, we have
the first case.

>Wait 'till the end of the season.

Why should so many other competitors be penalized? There is a significant
number of people who feel the car is unfairly classified in ESP. 

Keeping it in ESP any longer affects the several dozen people in L2 ProSolo
and ESP ProSolo, and on the regional level, at least the ESP people in Utah,
SFR and Houston regions (I don't know what other regions have M3's beating
up on the ESP class).

>see if anyone else has Bob's level of success in an ESP M3

See Patty Tunnell, and Todd Green's results.


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