> Sooner or later there will certainly be SERIOUS problems. Take a
> look at this! We are likely in for a very rough ride in the not
> so far distant future. Gird your loins.
>
>
> http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html
"The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of
oil has been 50 percent depleted."
Pseudo-scientific claptrap! The rate of production depends on the amount
left only in that it can't exceed it. Otherwise, it's set entirely by other
factors, including deliberate calculations done to determine the rate that
produces maximum profits.
Most of the world's oil fields, including the one I live in the middle of,
still have huge untapped (aka unproven) reserves. And we aren't even
pumping many of the proven reserves ... there are idle pumps all over the
place around here.
There's also a huge disconnect between the price of gasoline and the price
of crude oil. Do the math ... at roughly $17/barrel we were paying $1 at
the pump. $17/barrel is only about $.30/gallon; so $.70 of what we were
paying went to other things than buying the crude, like taxes and profits
for the service station, gasoline wholesaler, and refiners. Even at
$70/barrel (which hasn't been reached yet), that's still only $1.27 for the
crude, so we should be paying only $2.00/gallon at the pump, not $3.
Make no mistake, the oil industry's profits are at an all-time high and all
this nonsense about running out of oil is just a red herring to explain why.
Also, when the media talks about the price of oil, they only report the
highest priced crude oil, because that's what most refiners claim they have
to have. But it's perfectly possible to refine "sour" crude, which sells
for up to $15/barrel less than "sweet".
Anyone remember the second "gas crisis" back in 1979 ? Gas stations were
closed all over the place, rationing was imposed and so on. However,
California was still exporting refined gasoline to Mexico ! I saw the
trucks myself and my friends bought gas in Tijuana for $0.50 when you
couldn't buy it here for $2. There WAS no shortage, it was just a giant
shell game to rip us off. Enron and those guys got caught doing much the
same thing ... the oil industry is smarter but no less crooked.
BTW, CA is still a net exporter of both crude and gasoline; yet we pay some
of the highest prices in the nation at the pumps. Gasoline from the
refinery down the road from my house costs more in Los Angeles than it does
in Phoenix !
Randall
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