Forward this to all your friends who just had to have that Suburban to
tow the bass boat with! At these prices, you'll think twice before
joyriding in the TR.
$3-per-Gallon Gas Around the Corner?
By Eric Peters
Just as the sinking of the Titanic shattered public faith in technology
and ushered in a new and uncertain era, the coming war with Iraq could
be the trigger for dramatic--perhaps even permanent--price spikes in
world oil markets that will change our lives in ways we haven't begun to
imagine.
A 5,000-pound SUV that gets 15 miles per gallon seems indulgent, but not
lunatic, when unleaded regular is around $1.50 per gallon. But at $2.50
or even $3 per gallon, that kind of profligacy can't be supported. Even
20-mpg V-6 sedans will begin to grate when it takes $45 to fill up each
week.
If the worst happens, and world oil markets are seriously destabilized
as a result of war with Iraq, the automobile industry will suffer the
equivalent of a massive heart attack as its major profit center
evaporates in a matter of weeks, leaving hundreds of thousands of large
and midsize vehicles collecting dust on dealer lots as plants close and
layoffs begin en masse.
General Motors, Ford, and DaimlerChrysler have only a few compact and
subcompact models suited to a world of $3-per-gallon fuel. Their entire
manufacturing posture is set up to cater to the American taste for large
and powerful vehicles--especially big SUVs. Only two domestic-brand
compact trucks--Ford's Ranger and Chevy's S-10--are capable of 25 mpg.
Ford, GM, and DC's midsize and full-size pickups and SUVs safely wallow
in the mid-teens around town; a few can sometimes eke out more than 20
mpg on the highway if driven with an exceedingly light touch. But most
consume fuel with the gusto of John Madden devouring a six-legged
Turducken.
Those old enough to remember the early 1970s and the first OPEC oil
shocks will get a free return trip down memory lane as large vehicles of
all types become four-wheeled albatrosses to be dumped at catastrophic
rates of depreciation. It's likely we'll never see their kind
again--except for the handful of rich-folks' chariots that will always
be with us. But most of us will have to get used to cars the size of
Honda Civics. V-8 engines will fade into memory. SUVs will seem unreal;
could they ever have been popular? Like the finned and chromed land
barges of the 1950s, the future will gape in wonder that such vehicles
were ever possible.
We've got maybe a month left before the mess begins. It's a good time to
fill up with premium and head out for a road trip. Enjoy your SUV while
you still can; its days are very likely numbered.
Join in more hot discussions on rising gas prices in the Automobile Forum
COPYRIGHT 2002 ERIC PETERS
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