on 6/24/05 9:26 AM, RampantNM@aol.com at RampantNM@aol.com wrote:
> fuel cell cars could have a market share of 5 percent by 2020
>
> Be still my beating heart! I wont live long enough to see them take over.
My point, exactly...
> Hey, just my opinion, but I don't think alternative fuels will take over as
> primary sources of power until we run out of the cheap petroleum. In our
> free market economy, the only kind that works, the cheapest is the best.
Well, we may be testing your theory right now...
> I think we should actively go after every bit of oil in the US and use it
> all up as soon as possible, and we can tell all the foreign oil sources to
> butt a stump. We can stop selling the Alaskan oil to Japan. It will employ
> a
> bunch of folks in West Texas, help our overall economy, and when we run out
> in
> 75 years or so, you can bet some smart entrepeneurs will have come up with a
> viable replacement. I just think replacements wont be used until we HAVE to.
Umm, I hate to point out the fact that if the US relied solely on domestic
production, we would be effectively out of oil in a matter of months, not in
75 years. It doesn't matter how many fields you tap (Alaskan Wildlife
Refuge, offshore California), it doesn't all come out of the ground in one
fell swoop. There is a limit as to how fast you can extract it under any
circumstances (and transport and refine it), and there is no indication that
it would in any way keep up with domestic consumption, given our current
appetite for imported oil.
> There as a time when the automobile was invented and being produced, but
> only for the very rich as it was not economically viable for everyday
> transportation for everyone. When it became perfected and made economical
> (thanks
> Henry) more and more started using it, and now it is the norm. What did the
> transition take, 1890 something to 1920 something? I would say you could
> argue
> the automobile wasn't primary transportation for the majority until nearly
> WWII.
>
> So, when we start running out of oil, and it starts costing $20 a gallon,
> hydrogen fuel cells, or cosmic wind adapters, or whatever will start looking
> attractive and viable, and 30+ years after that, they will be the primary
> means
> of transportation. I hope my great grandchildren live long enough to see it.
It seems to me that a lot of economic disruption and hardship could be
avoided if we made some effort to anticipate this situation and plan for it
now, since I believe the actual time scale will be considerably shorter than
your estimate. But our current "faith-based" government prefers to act as if
they avoid thinking about future problems, they won't be affected by them;
i.e global warming, deficit spending, diminishing resources, and so on.
All I can say is, wish us luck -- we'll need it.
--
Max Heim
'66 MGB GHN3L76149
If you're near Mountain View, CA,
it's the primer red one with chrome wires
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