the likely hood of the death of the private automobile is pretty low, at
least in the near term (i.e anytihg in the nxt 50 years). I tend to
agree with Marcus on this one, there is a HUGE automiblie infrastructure
in place, and to repalce the cars we are all so used to driving, will
require a massive shift in the allocation of resources, and the Govt' is
in no position to spend that kind of money these days. In fact, the one
thing that I see going on is the "inteligent vehicle/intelligent highway"
concept, to improve the efficiency of private auto transportation
systems. there are at least three test projects going that I know of.
Suburbia is just not viable without private cars, and folks, suburbia is
where the voters live. Business parks are useless without private cars,
as are shopping malls. We may see a push to electric vehicles, and
alternative fuels, but the disapearance of the private car is a long long
way off. Not until the shopping malls and business owners loose ther
voice at the political table. The Science fiction pundits, and the computer
industry
press like to tell us about how we will all live in the country and
telelcommute to work at jobs halfway around the world. Well I'll beleiv
it when I see it, because already in many companies we are seeing a
backlash against telecommuting. People don;t wnat ot do it because it
cuts them out of the social environment at work, and they get reduced
recognition for thier accomplishments, i.e lower riases and fewer promotions.
telecommuting forgot one major thing, work isn;t only about getting a
taks done, it's also a scial activity, and that part cannot be repalced
by any amount of fancy electronics, lucas or otherwise. (had to get some
LBC content in here after all)
Greg
On Tue, 29 Jul 1997, Rick Feibusch wrote:
> This in from Marcus Tooze<mtooze@tan.unl.edu>:
> Rick,
> I found your emailand views on the future really interesting. I personally
> don't think I will live to see the day that car usage in the US decreases
> to the extent that you predict (I'm 25!)....I don't think the manufacturers
> would stand for it...not until they can get the standard of living (disposable
> income) up in the developing countries of Africa and Asia anyway.
> Moreover, the US is now so 'dedicated' to automobiles...there is
> so much infrastructure built purely for and around cars, I think the
> days you predict are a long way off. New car sales continue to increase
> in the US (I don't know how they manage it!)...and Americans just love
> cars like no other people I have ever met. I think there would have to be
> a major shift in socio-economic ties before the car left
> the 'pedestal' that it stands on in the US.
> Marcus
>
> Marcus,
> - At first glance what you have written seems to be a valid assumption,
> BUT as today's cars age there will be a difference as they won't be able to
> be kept alive and smog legal by clever folks in their garage and the poor
> will be forced into the public transportation that the government will be
> required to institute because they have regulated reasonable car ownership
> out of existance. The rest of us will discover the joys and freedom of
> telecommuting as well as the ease and savings a good public transportation
> system can provide. Ask the folks in San Francisco, New York or London.
> The best that we can hope for is the ability to occationally use our
> classics on the weekend without too much administrative red tape - See you
> on the Funway! - Rick
>
>
>
|