I'll bite my tongue. :)
--Pat K
----------
>From: Rich Urschel <OSP13@attglobal.net>
>To: "Michael R. Clements" <mrclem@telocity.com>
>Cc: Autocross <ba-autox@autox.team.net>
>Subject: Re: rain -- again? what's going on?
>Date: Fri, Apr 5, 2002, 1:57 PM
>
> "Michael R. Clements" wrote:
>
>> We have had 4 autocrosses so far, in 3 of which it rained. The
>> probability to get rain on all three of these days is 0.3 * 0.3 * 0.3 =
>> 0.027.
>
> But that would be the probability it would rain on those
> three specific days (without considering Boondoggle one way
> or the other). The probability it would rain on at least three of
> four events (using your 30%/event) would be 8.4%. Such a start
> to the season could be expected every 12 years or so. It doesn't
> snow in Sacramento in March very often either.
>
>> Can anybody explain what is happening? Is there some phenomena going on
>> causing it to rain on every event this year?
>
> I'm sure we can figure out a way to blame one or more of
> the Kelly's if we try hard enough. :-)
>
> Rich Urschel
>
> .3^3*.7*4 + .3^4 = .0837
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