On 5/12/06, b-evans@earthlink.net <b-evans@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> Jim Johnson wrote:
>
> And how does that tell you what the weather is going to do in a week's
> time in Durban, South Africa? :-)
>
> Weatherchannel.com is VERY reliable!
Okay, I'll propose a little test of your faith in TWC. I sent you the
URL for the NWS office that forecasts for your area. Why don't you
make a little table and keep track of Maximum temperature, minimum
temperature and probability of precipitation for a 7 day forecast.
Keep one column for TWC, one for the NWS and one with the actual
verification data. Do that for a year and then see what you think of
TWC.
TWC fired most of their human forecasters a few years ago. Most of
their forecasts now come directly from computer model output
statistics (a series of multiple regression equations using input from
computer atmospheric models, climatology data and persistence). The
MOS (model output statistics) are generated by the NWS and provided to
TWC for free. Actually, anyone can get them over the internet. They
are quite good when there is little change in the weather. However,
the data shows that they are horrible when there are large and rapid
changes in the weather (the times when the weather is really going to
be significant to you).
TWC is reliable in delivering their forecasts. The quality of them on
the other hand is pretty questionable... ;-)
Cheers!!
Jim - 68 Midget in Dodge City
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