Here's some numbers that go a long way in explaining why, at least in the
interim, the Steering Committee (SC) has, by Email "vote" established three
runs for, at least, the next three events at the bay area sites.
This analysis takes off from last Saturday's 3-Com event:
1. 271 entrants, four runs each, with an average 25 second start interval,
requires 7 hrs. and 32 minutes run time.
2. Through in only a 30 minute mid-day walk and the minimum day for a
perfect event is 8 hrs. and 2 minutes. Start at 9:00 AM, finish at 5:02 PM.
3. Now lets get real, there will be red flag delays throughout the day.
Here's some analysis of the time-impact of red flags.
A. On an average .5 mile, 50 second, course (36 mph), each red flag
will add a minimum of 1.5 minutes to the total run time. (2 cars red flagged
@ 25 second Re-run interval plus the second car traveling half the course @
20mph takes 45 seconds for a total of 95 seconds or, approximately 1.5
minutes. Assume only two red flags per run group and red flags add 24
minutes of run time. Day ends at 5:26 PM.
B. On a .6 mile, 60 second, course the time for each red flag is
approximately 2+ minutes or for two red flags per run group 32 minutes are
added to the run time. Day ends at 5:34 PM.
C. For a .7 mile course (including three intervals) the individual delay
is almost 3 minutes or 48 minutes for the entire day. Day ends at 5:50 PM.
D. A .8 mile course, under the same assumptions (including four
intervals), results in a total delay of almost 4 minutes/flag or 64 minutes
of run time. Day ends at 6:06 PM.
E. The actual .83 mile course, on Saturday, with an average run time of
89 seconds causes a minimum 4.5 minute delay for each flag, or a total of 72
minutes for the day. Day ends at 6:14 PM.
4. The above paragraph. (3.) is simplistic, in that it doesn't recognize
that, as the course gets longer, the probability of a red flag on ANY run
increases due to the greater opportunity, caused by the greater
time/distance of each run. Therefore as courses get longer, there will be
at least a proportionate (relative to course run-time) increase in the
number of red flag delays. My guess is (based in part on the numerous red
flag delays we worked in last Saturday's group four) that the number of red
flags for a 90 minute course might be a minimum of four per group instead of
my hypothetical two. Thirty two (eight groups x four red-flags) red-flags @
4,5 minute each is 144 minutes, or by adding to the perfect 5:02 event
complete time results in last car finished at 7:26 PM.
5. None of the above has included any worker change-over time or delays
caused by equipment problems, competitors breaking and dropping oil that
needs to be cleaned-up, or a competitor "taking-out" a timer.
6. In summary, through in 5 minutes change-over time for the six
change-overs and a half hour for miscellaneous delays and last Saturday's
event would have finished at 8: 26 PM even if it had started on-time.
LESSONS TO BE LEARNED:
1. Long courses invite dis-proportionate red-flag delay time.
2. There WILL be un-foreseen event delays during the day, at every event.
3. The best attempt at on-the-fly worker change-overs will still include
some lost time.
4. At sites that draw large attendances, on-time event starts are absolutely
imperitive, possibly requiring earlier planned starting times.
Don
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