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Re: Proposed classifiactions..2yr results (VERY LONG!)

To: "'autox@autox.team.net'" <autox@autox.team.net>
Subject: Re: Proposed classifiactions..2yr results (VERY LONG!)
From: "Ryan, John - WINDD" <ryan@ctc.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2000 18:13:44 -0400
Hello All,

Mark Darby (markds33@yahoo.com) wrote:

>To whom it may concern:

>Regarding the classification of the Neon in Class 5 I
>have compiled two years worth of results comparing the
>Neon's time to the cars in the proposed class.  Here
>are my findings:

<data snipped>

>The events that had no entrants were thrown out and no
>consideration to different weather conditions were
>given.
>The D Stock heading means the time for the fastest
>Neon. The G Stock heading means the fastest time
>for:Type R,Turbo Eclipse/Talon,Camaro,Corrado(ie
>current G Stock cars)
>The average time differential for 1999 was G Stock
>cars faster on average by .617 of a second.
>The average time differential for 2000,so far,is 2.178
>seconds that the G Stock cars have the advantage!

Mark's e-mail finally gave me the impetus to do some
data digging that I've been meaning to do to support a theory
I had about what these results would really show.

Here is an updated listing - Mark missed some of the fast
GS cars that ran National Series in '99 and I've added
driver/car info as well.  This should look OK in a fixed
width font.


1999               D Stock             G Stock
----               -------             -------
Ft. Meyers Pro      72.801              73.530            (+0.729)
                     Daddio              McIver/Eclipse
                    73.379                                (+0.151)
                     Leverone
San Bernardino Pro  69.759              68.570            (-1.181)
                     Molleker            Bauer/TypeR
Atwater Pro         62.869              62.545            (-0.324)
                     Molleker            Smith/TypeR
Peru Pro            80.945              81.324            (+0.379)
                     Zoner               Stratton/Eclipse
                    81.147                                (+0.177)
                     Daddio
Petersburg Pro      61.884              62.627            (+0.743)
                     Daddio              Stratton/Eclipse
                    62.349                                (+0.278)
                     Miller
Harrisburg Pro      56.001              56.856            (+0.855)
                     Daddio              McIver/Eclipse
                    57.020                                (-0.164)
                     Zoner
Seattle Pro         80.348              79.273            (-1.075)
                     Fauth               Bauer/TypeR
Wendover Pro        62.287              60.918            (-1.369)
                     Daddio              Bauer/TypeR
                    62.839                                (-1.921)
                     Molleker
Finale Pro          62.266              62.617            (+0.351)
                     Daddio              Bauer/TypeR
                    63.531                                (-0.914)
                     Collins
Meridian N.T.      101.568             101.441            (-0.127)
                     Leverone            Goeke/Eclipse
San Diego N.T.     127.440             125.901            (-1.539)
                     Molleker            Bauer/TypeR
Fort Worth N.T.    150.611             148.405            (-2.206)
                     Collins             Bellamy/Camaro
Ayer N.T.           88.298              91.192            (+2.894)
                     Daddio              Bellom/Camaro
                    89.918                                (+1.274)
                     Washburn
Evansville N.T.     85.972              86.163            (+0.191)
                     Hughes              Ledford/Eclipse
Seattle N.T.        81.774              80.279            (-1.495)
                     Molleker            Bauer/TypeR
Fountain N.T.      126.922             123.459            (-3.463)
                     Fauth               Bauer/TypeR
Nationals          120.156             121.480            (+1.324)
                     Daddio              Endicott/TypeR
                   122.469                                (-0.989)
                     Molleker

2000               D Stock             G Stock
----               -------             -------
Ft. Meyers Pro      74.327              74.418            (+0.091)
                     Shields             Stratton/Eclipse
San Bernardino Pro  71.318              67.284            (-4.034)
                     Szabo               McCormick/TypeR
Lemoore Pro         69.670              67.179            (-2.491)
                     Darby               McCormick/TypeR
Peru Pro            77.190              75.197            (-1.993)  
                     Couture             McIver/Eclipse
Petersburg Pro      58.652              56.756            (-1.896)
                     Miller              McIver/Eclipse
Harrisburg Pro      60.980              59.768            (-1.212)
                     Zoner               Stratton/Eclipse
Wendover Pro        62.977              60.564            (-2.413)
                     Miller              McCormick/TypeR
Meridian N.T.      106.836             106.326            (-0.510)
                     Wright              Ledford/Eclipse
San Diego N.T.     119.193             117.232            (-1.961)
                     Hamilton            Smith/TypeR
Fort Worth N.T.    145.651             140.440            (-5.211)
                     Collins             Smith/TypeR
Ayer N.T.          119.437             120.062            (+0.625)
                     Zoner               Saini/Corrado
Peru N.T.           92.662              92.115            (-0.547)
                     Hughes              Wilson/Prelude
Bremerton N.T.      99.565              95.868            (-3.697)
                     Darby               McCormick/TypeR


AVERAGE MARGINS
---------------
1999 ALL 17 EVENTS:
     w/Daddio:  -0.324 (GS ahead)
   w/o Daddio:  -0.772 (GS ahead more)

1999 ONLY THE 8 EVENTS THAT DADDIO RAN:
     w/Daddio:  +0.713 (DS ahead!)
   w/o Daddio:  -0.238 (GS ahead!)

1999 ONLY THE 9 EVENTS THAT DADDIO DIDN'T RUN:
                -1.247 (GS way ahead)
   
2000 ALL EVENTS (No Daddio):
                -1.942 (GS in another county)

Yes, there is no accounting for weather and course favoritism,
and yes, there is probably a better way of looking at it other
than average raw time differential, but I think some points can be drawn.

If you look at the '99 results, it is apparent that Daddio is inhuman! ;-)

Seriously, I hate to single him out like this (he is human, and he can
be beat, as shown above), but his presence skews the results remarkably.
While the overall '99 average is slightly in GS's favor, with Mark removed,
the average margin jumps from .324 to .772 - a significant difference I
think
even though lots of variables are uncontrolled/unaccounted for.
Looking at only the events Mark did or did not run is even more telling:
with him running, DS wins those 8 events by an average of .713
without him, GS wins those same 8 events by .238.

So, should the Neons to the new 'Class 5'?

Well, someone asked a while back if it's any different to get beat by
Daddio by 2 sec. or beat by McCormick/Stratton/etc by 2 sec.
Theoretically, no, but when you get beat that bad by Daddio (I have
some experience here :), you KNOW it is something you could do with
better set-up and skill.  It gives you a target to shoot for that is
attainable.
It is going to take a heroic effort for someone to match Daddio's
performance
(without having him as a benchmark), and run a Neon competitively against
the type R's and DSM's.  Plus, are the GS cars getting quicker with better
set-up?  Could even Daddio catch them now?

I don't know.

Have fun,

John Ryan
ryan@ctc.com
DS/Neon ACR

tongue in cheek epilogue:
I have another theory - Chrysler is engineering the SCAC restructure!
Why?  They want all the DS Neons to go to ST and kick butt there so Chrysler
can claim victory over all the imports!  Much better marketing!







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