Jay Mitchell said:
> Glad you brought that up, because I've been making some estimates to
> come up with an approximate statistical model. Must have been those
> statistical mechanics courses in grad. school. Bear with me, it gets
> interesting.
<snip the presumed calculations, get right to the presumed results>
> If the above region has 10 events/year, then their competition events
> result in 4500 vehicle miles/year. And, if they have ONE incident every
> ten years, that's one per 45,000 vehicle miles.
<snip a bit more>
> Now, I can say from my own experience that I've had far fewer accidents
> on public roads than one per 45,000 vehicle miles. In my case, it would
> be more like 1 per 450,000 vehicle miles, or an order of magnitude less.
Wrong comparison, Jay. If you're going to compare YOUR specific case to
autocrossing, you should only include the autox miles that YOU drove in
the same period. The proper comparison to ALL the autox miles driven in
your area would be accidents per mile driven in your community...
significantly more than 450,000 miles/10 years, I'm sure. (and I expect
the accidents per mile ratio would be far greater as well)
--
Loren Williams | Homepage - http://www2.southwind.net/~lsw
'94 Saturn SC2 | Wichita Region SCCA - http://www2.southwind.net/~scca
|